TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1cb6…93f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.32
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,309Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$578.95
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,836Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$1,110.72
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.41
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,618Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,618.02
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$15
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.76
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$25.94
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$835Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$281.98
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$79.79
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+30.2%+$211.17
Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$230
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$273.41
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+475.4%+$1,483.39
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,239Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+29.5%+$659.44
Canada election called by midnight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$6,816Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$1,707.26
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Cincinnati Open: Tereza Valentova vs Elina Svitolinabacked Elina Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$182.63
The Memphis Classic: Mary Stoiana vs Peyton Stearnsbacked Peyton Stearns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$157.25
ITF Santa Fe: Ekaterina Khayrutdinova vs Mckenna Schaefbauerbacked Ekaterina Khayrutdinova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
ITF Brisbane: Matthew Dellavedova vs Shinji Hazawabacked Matthew Dellavedova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,927Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$508.91
ITF Laval: Tristan Stringer vs Strong Kirchheimerbacked Strong Kirchheimer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$84.75
Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinskibacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$114.84
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilaganbacked Andre Ilagan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$82.38
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizubacked Andre Ilagan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$64.41
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$601
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$27.74
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauffbacked Belinda Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Alexandra Eala vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Under 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.87
Mexican Open: Yibing Wu vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+92.3%+$46.15
Mexican Open: Casper Ruud vs Yibing Wubacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,574Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,573.74
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+79.1%+$305.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$84.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40.8%+$183.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$42.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$31.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+26.2%+$62.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Stormbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$296
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.