Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d2f457798bd3a6cec0e1056016173f0551bee577f823be911f0ffcf22118c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 44c | 1,572$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 62c | 1,378$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 33c | 942.5$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 55c | 511.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 56c | 405$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 41c | 304.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.73 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 25c | 276.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 41c | 244.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 45c | 152$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 39c | 47.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Alumni" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "America" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Banking" or "Banker" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Debt" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Degree" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Federal Reserve" 2+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Friends" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Money" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Princeton" 5+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Thank you" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.