Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78dcba455d407e01b4f213d2c267f4e043949a21a9aeb46b50eecc00fbb364d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 9c | 1,154$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 15c | 747.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…e7c2backed Yes | 9c | 219.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 67c | 199.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 17c | 183.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 16c | 104.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 54c | 55.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 28c | 54.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…3ea6backed Yes | 30c | 39.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Alumni" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "America" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Banking" or "Banker" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Debt" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Degree" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Federal Reserve" 2+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Friends" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Money" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Princeton" 5+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Thank you" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.