Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4305278264ecfa49dcd7ba6f2805e3c1c3a5a0108e55451a7bdc5b35a25c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 22c | 588.6$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 24c | 119.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 65c | 53.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 68c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 67c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?this page
- Will Powell say "Alumni" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "America" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Banking" or "Banker" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Debt" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Degree" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Federal Reserve" 2+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Friends" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Money" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Princeton" 5+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Thank you" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.