Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcee1da667f8c2cf9e502938ddf817e40a71da250bccf09a297e7822844a44fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6c4…71b9backed Yes | 55c | 28,578$15,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,860.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…6a6abacked No | 45c | 28,578$12,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,860.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 59c | 1,179$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 45c | 978.97$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.9 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 43c | 948.12$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 58c | 599.99$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 32c | 495.62$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 49c | 481.28$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.34 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 50c | 392$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 31c | 271.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 52c | 220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 46c | 211.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b1…4960backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 56c | 167.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…0872backed No | 33c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 54c | 128.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 51c | 113$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…8accbacked Yes | 46c | 84.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…89bcbacked No | 53c | 72.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 44c | 54.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 40c | 53.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Yes | 55c | 52.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked No | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…3ea6backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 47c | 45.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 25c | 39.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 43c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f99…a5dfbacked Yes | 79c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…833cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 44c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…6209backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 40c | 26.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…462bbacked Yes | 66c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…afe5backed Yes | 70c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Alumni" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "America" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Banking" or "Banker" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Debt" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Degree" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Federal Reserve" 2+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Friends" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Money" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Princeton" 5+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Thank you" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.