Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac62ca109a7654e55e22b2ad98ba129398280e8935103fa9eb7f10cd461bdf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 10c | 1,112$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.9 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 41c | 1,102$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.88 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 2c | 834.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 27c | 385.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.76 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 70c | 236.14$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 32c | 227.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 195.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 31cpaid | +114%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a552backed Yes | 73c | 122.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…a99cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Yes | 65c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…00aebacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…462bbacked Yes | 73c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 73c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Future" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Alumni" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "America" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Banking" or "Banker" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Debt" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Degree" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Economy" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Federal Reserve" 2+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Friends" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Money" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Princeton" 5+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Thank you" 3+ times during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.