TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0607…8bc8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT2516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-77.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump Mobile smartphone released before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$116.65
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.74
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.37
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.38
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,205.73
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.99
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 12 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.62
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT+25%+$6.84
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$62.5
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$818Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+49.9%+$408.48
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$270.2
Trump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.83
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.89
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$217.08
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.72
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.95
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.46
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.53
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.94
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.28
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.27
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.41
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT2317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.83
Liberal party signs coalition agreement before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+70.5%+$116.27
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Record low border encounters in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.44
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,772Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+97.4%+$1,726.07
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$6,556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,556.31
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,100
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.1
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,880Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+77.7%+$3,013.67
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$295.07
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$1,210
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$331.2
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.41
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.44
Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.88
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.68
Canada election called by midnight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$165.23
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.64
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.37
Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.12
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$826Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$825.86
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 12, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$67
Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$758Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+116.1%+$879.61
Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.3
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.89
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.86
Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.97
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+819.5%+$356.5
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.56
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.35
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Operating Margin" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Truth Social memecoin launch this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 318?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.