TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$886,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$728,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $886,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes51c124,336$63,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,392.08825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+201.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8983…3b6fbacked Yes67c51,959$35,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes10c44,894$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6741643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+391.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes5c43,668$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.993751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed No28c42,482$11,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,626.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick31cpaid+63.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes19c38,027$7,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,202.655925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No35c24,798$8,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,203.646038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No80c24,091$19,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.3420538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1842…5837backed Yes2c22,849$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c93…4e2fbacked No57c19,556$11,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,352.431546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f68…2815backed Yes4c17,845$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.23616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes41c16,051$6,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,556.312317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No37c11,002$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,891.4436742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8425…be0abacked Yes42c10,129$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,239.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02e…5badbacked No51c10,000$5,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8872100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+313.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa414…75c9backed Yes1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+239.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes72c9,727$6,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,985.9630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4da2…bf18backed Yes69c9,667$6,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,672.531931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes14c8,077$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.586883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes1c7,741$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.457225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f01…26d7backed Yes71c7,457$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,297.871145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes63c7,165$4,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,548.638047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5481…461cbacked Yes1c7,079$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+568.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes22c6,747$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.36131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes38c6,472$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.491526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Yes38c6,158$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+93%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3687…a0a6backed Yes3c6,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick4cpaid+662.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes20c5,919$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.945525.5%14 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No59c5,717$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.118529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7136…b35abacked Yes13c5,486$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.011323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+272.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcce…3e55backed Yes27c5,209$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick12cpaid+724.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes20c5,163$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.853318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd725…c6b5backed Yes78c5,140$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6142…dc66backed No70c4,982$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.72343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes28c4,896$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.356238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes15c4,150$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.741241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes3c3,678$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.83417.6%6 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab87…6f01backed Yes1c3,265$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid-48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No62c3,206$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.32955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked Yes6c3,103$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.452623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes10c2,912$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.856726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd099…f38ebacked Yes2c2,520$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes60c2,409$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.1118036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes19c2,267$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.934231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes28c2,177$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6132828.6%8 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e1e3backed Yes1c2,125$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.75119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed Yes9c1,974$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.46536.9%24 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes12c1,924$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6645723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes34c1,872$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6321520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d1…6591backed Yes6c1,674$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+103.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes10c1,579$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8748224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes2c1,544$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No56c1,538$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.321040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc8…cf79backed Yes10c1,509$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.91323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No26c1,500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1057038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98be…b7cabacked Yes1c1,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick5cpaid+207.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes2c1,458$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.852425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes53c1,234$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+104.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes7c1,190$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.271241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+144.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes8c1,182$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.092030%6 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes51c1,174$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.913762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x477c…4b72backed Yes7c1,116$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes10c1,107$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.45519.8%5 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+93.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c1,106$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.551,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes2c1,103$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes8c1,091$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.743938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3b…f625backed Yes27c1,064$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.591040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+118.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa674…a5f7backed Yes20c1,038$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No30c1,031$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.16737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4790…0382backed Yes59c1,018$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702646.2%12 W · 14 L+5.7wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+116.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes55c999.99$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick66cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes7c930$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.34862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick29cpaid+75%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No13c902.21$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.8213525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes51c896.75$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.978641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes60c883.53$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.312056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c853.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc124…25cbbacked Yes2c804.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+95%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0292…02a1backed Yes66c800.07$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76e9…a61cbacked No78c779.67$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.69540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735b…4af0backed Yes5c726.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd48…39c4backed Yes29c706.85$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b2…2f77backed Yes22c671.01$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.61633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+494%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d4…65bbbacked Yes59c663.82$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.62650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+182.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes18c600$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed Yes10c591.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.132937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes6c590.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4618214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No77c583.84$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2319957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7a…35ecbacked Yes4c562.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee04…c22bbacked Yes35c555.86$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429d…39a7backed Yes56c544.39$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.251020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4971…7488backed Yes19c530.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71d9…4738backed Yes22c517.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6267…ab01backed Yes3c457.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c438$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Yes36c430.23$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd2…5434backed Yes57c416.55$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59dd…0708backed Yes17c410.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701060%6 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+216.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.