World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3c4a6559bdb9724c239982f8392e10d7fb7488518a1ae434284be34dd701d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 0c | 36,583$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…41babacked Yes | 2c | 9,885$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 8,805$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…4af0backed Yes | 2c | 8,180$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…cee4backed Yes | 29c | 7,221$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 6,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 3c | 6,266$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…6f01backed Yes | 1c | 5,710$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,410$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,181$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 3c | 3,046$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,995$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 2,887$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc8…cf79backed Yes | 4c | 2,813$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…31aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,593$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…ecafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,929$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…461cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,769$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +568.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,489$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 1,425$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…5837backed Yes | 2c | 1,279$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 1,043$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,037$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…a540backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 940.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 846.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 698.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…980dbacked Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad07…2877backed Yes | 5c | 606.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 3c | 561.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 561.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…a89dbacked Yes | 3c | 526.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…289ebacked Yes | 3c | 472.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes | 3c | 454.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…58f5backed Yes | 2c | 446.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…d4febacked Yes | 5c | 241$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…314dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 51% and 53% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.