TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lee Jae-myung win between 51% and 53% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa066…bfd4backed Yes1c26,166$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.842313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea1…c0e4backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed Yes20c10,722$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.376536.9%24 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa072…5353backed Yes49c7,783$3,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,811.232030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes33c6,012$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.755431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes27c5,956$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.746131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f14…8121backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed Yes28c4,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1402937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1276…3618backed Yes65c3,432$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2201323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Yes79c3,059$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No69c2,502$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.1119957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes72c2,124$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.838529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes19c2,095$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3917828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No9c1,980$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.66238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes19c1,800$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.462638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b8b4backed No70c1,769$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c1,600$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f68…2815backed No40c1,490$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.92616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes40c1,400$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5605815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No79c1,114$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9936742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes22c1,061$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.291833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No5c1,000$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9507335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked Yes54c993.5$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c933.14$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d17…9558backed Yes78c930.08$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.862025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No53c911.16$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.991637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+154.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes21c899.98$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.951827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No42c855.3$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.453938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a55…71bcbacked Yes24c836.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-78.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes9c740$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.220325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…8145backed Yes62c721.32$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.484240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No21c699.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.994526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe362…7430backed Yes70c695$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.11729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f7…6c70backed Yes29c619.48$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1791729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes80c603.12$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.516535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No27c600$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2812056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes27c570$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.92114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No74c529.47$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.214250%21 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No71c502.3$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c500.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8456314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f01…26d7backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…3be2backed Yes31c455.85$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.33520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes22c420$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.43751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa483…1d9ebacked Yes29c415.29$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.91100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec59…8557backed Yes18c360.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c351.43$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.271,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c347.76$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes63c343.13$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.934047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46aa…690ebacked Yes35c340.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.61520%3 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec0c…44a7backed Yes63c337.49$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No53c326.44$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.964365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e01…cfeebacked Yes31c326.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes22c288.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.323411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…0358backed Yes24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes17c234.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.825525.5%14 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked Yes64c200.93$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.251566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1582931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa9…f639backed Yes26c191.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x199a…17c7backed No23c172.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.164100%4 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+929.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4798…e795backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8d…928cbacked Yes30c114$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9024736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…9d80backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+83.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0732…b540backed Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes29c89.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8548224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c68.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.181,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes65c67.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.862445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c66.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.651,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5b…3f99backed Yes31c65.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8eec…33b1backed Yes32c62.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.513139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a4…5eb3backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+104.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0306…e85cbacked Yes77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd24…72d0backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…980abacked Yes31c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed Yes29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes62c31.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.532147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f5…03a1backed No70c21.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.731443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x733e…286abacked No70c17.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.