World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18593ba8a76c7af50396248b880f5ccbf3e217f0f18af7b79c73740f3640cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $794,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $841,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $794,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Yes | 43c | 50,245$21,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,880.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 54c | 42,479$23,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,396.94 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 9c | 19,028$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.44 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 71c | 17,918$12,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,244.72 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 16,127$6,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,812.22 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 21c | 13,130$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,314.53 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 36c | 12,920$4,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,254.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 52c | 12,642$6,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,113.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 20c | 12,456$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes | 71c | 12,320$8,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,568.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 65c | 11,888$7,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,159.27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 18c | 11,873$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…5417backed Yes | 24c | 11,181$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,481.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 27c | 10,768$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,876.83 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…5badbacked Yes | 16c | 8,840$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,439.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +313.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 37c | 8,672$3,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,473.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 80c | 8,233$6,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…c0e4backed Yes | 28c | 7,843$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,610.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…0f1fbacked Yes | 47c | 7,679$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,074.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 17c | 6,776$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,622.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 16c | 6,478$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,422.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…4e2fbacked Yes | 11c | 6,217$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,538.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed No | 43c | 6,096$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 11c | 5,400$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.82 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 21c | 5,390$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.03 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 36c | 5,059$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.43 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No | 54c | 4,944$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…0235backed Yes | 26c | 4,670$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 18c | 4,652$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 31c | 4,572$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 27c | 4,379$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 12c | 4,119$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 32c | 4,000$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 32c | 3,966$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.89 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 40c | 3,499$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.35 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 25c | 3,280$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.94 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…b29ebacked Yes | 71c | 3,234$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 68c | 3,190$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 10c | 2,864$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 2,721$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.21 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…41ffbacked Yes | 60c | 2,668$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 2,508$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked Yes | 18c | 2,481$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 66c | 2,379$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.86 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 14c | 2,208$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +411.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 22c | 2,204$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.88 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8425…be0abacked Yes | 46c | 2,190$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…d903backed Yes | 56c | 2,054$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 70c | 2,036$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.91 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,881$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07dc…3dcabacked No | 60c | 1,789$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 56c | 1,783$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 25c | 1,674$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.55 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,634$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.35 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,600$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Yes | 24c | 1,574$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 42c | 1,438$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.31 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 1,432$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.22 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 1,323$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.39 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 1,312$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.61 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 78c | 1,207$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Yes | 36c | 1,190$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 28cpaid | +292.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…6dacbacked Yes | 13c | 1,181$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +223.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Yes | 70c | 1,178$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 64c | 1,165$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.85 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…4a72backed Yes | 57c | 1,096$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 71c | 1,091$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.42 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 19c | 1,070$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.93 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 32c | 1,049$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf54…5abbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…d11fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…a8b5backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed No | 76c | 1,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 77c | 986.44$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.56 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa674…a5f7backed No | 21c | 962.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 22c | 914.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.28 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 72c | 914.17$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 907.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 52c | 833.67$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.65 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…8705backed Yes | 20c | 831.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +316.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 30c | 824.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…2186backed No | 58c | 779.99$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…1cadbacked Yes | 52c | 776.22$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 19c | 761.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 11c | 741.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.22 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…0382backed Yes | 68c | 740.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 38c | 734.64$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…a44fbacked Yes | 21c | 714$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 710.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…8002backed Yes | 33c | 705$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…f860backed No | 17c | 702.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…f639backed Yes | 43c | 690.62$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b56…34d6backed Yes | 69c | 620.62$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 72c | 613.29$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…929ebacked Yes | 77c | 605.82$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 23c | 600$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.23 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…7829backed No | 60c | 569.55$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…26d7backed Yes | 28c | 560$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked No | 5c | 559.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 51% and 53% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.