World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122fa34f8bb410dd60e51575025a413054b775a27075ce2f5f98ac822aa6cafa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 11,971$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.31 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 8c | 10,389$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…f9c0backed Yes | 0c | 10,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 2c | 8,174$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 3c | 5,667$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.86 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 18c | 5,497$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.26 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 4c | 5,439$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 10c | 3,873$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 6c | 3,741$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 80c | 3,676$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.22 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,467$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.76 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 5c | 3,239$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…b8b4backed No | 76c | 2,855$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…6dacbacked Yes | 2c | 2,385$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +223.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…9bc0backed No | 80c | 2,152$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…71bcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,580$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,314$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked No | 79c | 1,279$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…3618backed Yes | 6c | 1,058$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…2815backed Yes | 2c | 967.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…8144backed No | 78c | 912.42$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 817.81$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 802.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 78c | 800.35$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…6c70backed Yes | 10c | 729.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8557backed Yes | 27c | 584.7$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 526$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 515.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 18c | 500.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…1d9ebacked Yes | 16c | 471.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…cfeebacked Yes | 22c | 448.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…fe90backed Yes | 5c | 369.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 11c | 289.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 268.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 7c | 227.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 12c | 161.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…a9f9backed Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…533ebacked Yes | 25c | 101.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…8ba0backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46aa…690ebacked Yes | 25c | 97.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 19c | 93.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…980abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e9…d999backed Yes | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 76c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…6b06backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…9893backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8346…5077backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…bacfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…49b5backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a59…ff4cbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…f701backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…5d92backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…3687backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 51% and 53% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.