World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb0fe6c39f7b692de829738f0a50e5b571dac919177b49065420e8e38f107aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4455…f9c0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…9109backed Yes | 6c | 5,585$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…23b4backed Yes | 9c | 3,900$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 3c | 3,322$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,627$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 3c | 2,353$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 6c | 2,148$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…71bcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,023$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,904$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,848$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 3c | 1,611$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,080$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 944.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 11c | 926.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 704.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8557backed Yes | 13c | 593.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 562.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 2c | 527.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 401$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 7c | 186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 51% and 53% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.