Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085c0962ed75606e204a7f863f21e9569647536cd674a01cb73af1235d7a8c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $411,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed No | 12c | 50,686$6,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,204.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 54c | 16,673$8,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,675.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 74c | 16,288$12,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,201.24 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 25c | 10,186$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 51c | 8,516$4,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.67 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 62c | 7,090$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 11c | 6,200$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…38f4backed Yes | 67c | 4,115$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 71c | 4,093$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 42c | 3,765$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 10c | 3,190$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 10c | 2,989$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 74c | 2,706$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,390$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 19c | 1,921$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 54c | 1,918$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 57c | 1,849$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.07 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,774$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 1,340$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.74 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 17c | 1,283$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 25c | 1,190$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.52 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 27c | 1,170$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 993.57$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 66c | 947.63$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…9094backed Yes | 56c | 899.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 895.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 43c | 848.4$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…7268backed No | 3c | 834$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…77e7backed No | 3c | 782$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 30c | 753.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 53c | 738.96$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8c…92e8backed Yes | 13c | 721.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +686.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 38c | 699.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…58f9backed No | 3c | 670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked No | 33c | 652.02$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Yes | 18c | 634.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…9956backed No | 3c | 598$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 61c | 536.97$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 521.18$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.03 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…766dbacked No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 70c | 462.95$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed Yes | 55c | 455$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 73c | 454.86$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…ab11backed No | 3c | 445$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…0ea3backed No | 3c | 409$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…e680backed No | 3c | 405$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 79c | 400.4$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…6f18backed Yes | 48c | 394.15$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 78c | 380.84$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…1248backed Yes | 66c | 372.41$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e8…67fbbacked No | 3c | 346$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 35c | 345$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 79c | 343.94$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 15c | 330.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…7486backed No | 3c | 326$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…180bbacked No | 3c | 305$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…00b9backed Yes | 67c | 270$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…cd99backed Yes | 70c | 254.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 37c | 252.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 31c | 249.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 248.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 241.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.86 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 48c | 222.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 15c | 205.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…8d2dbacked No | 39c | 201.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…0f3fbacked Yes | 61c | 186.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 64c | 183.74$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…8275backed Yes | 68c | 173.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 27c | 168.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…475dbacked No | 35c | 160.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 11c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 66c | 150.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…2855backed No | 35c | 146.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 55c | 145.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00aa…3383backed No | 37c | 144.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…20a9backed Yes | 64c | 139.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af4…91e6backed Yes | 65c | 135.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…6c2fbacked Yes | 66c | 133.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…8289backed Yes | 57c | 127.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4b64backed Yes | 68c | 127.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…73a8backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 109.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6620…1836backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 23c | 99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 23c | 87.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.