Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85dbee19dc42e155ac494b69b9da10887fcfb8a5c8d38c9007fa4e22a411b5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 14c | 45,571$6,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,396.75 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 1c | 42,160$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef8…c573backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,977$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…d441backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,987$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…548abacked Yes | 0c | 12,770$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 11,569$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…8cd1backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…0f3fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,819$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 0c | 8,472$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,881$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,656$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 3,482$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,981$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 23c | 2,658$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 13c | 2,598$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 2,451$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…757ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,283$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,211$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,177$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 17c | 1,479$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,424$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 4c | 1,395$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,308$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,293$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…3b00backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…38f4backed Yes | 10c | 1,023$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 970.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 2c | 866$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 22c | 849.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 774.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…8416backed Yes | 18c | 500.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 11c | 427$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 3c | 397.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 78c | 342.31$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 338.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 28c | 323.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 6c | 299.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 12c | 280$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 276.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 255$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 79c | 225.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 217.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 174.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 9c | 171.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…84ddbacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 20c | 135.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 17c | 121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 110.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…c1c5backed Yes | 24c | 101.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…affdbacked Yes | 29c | 76.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…b152backed Yes | 24c | 73.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…0398backed Yes | 26c | 41.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…8f37backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.