Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9038c77411b5ad1ab72b4b5c735657aa6c6c0c2321e9eb0b8d37999b20da99c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,438$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 13,420$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.07 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,244$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,368$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 3,647$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 3,433$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…8cc9backed Yes | 7c | 3,395$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 2,216$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 14cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,687$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,464$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 3c | 1,311$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,292$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…9b76backed Yes | 2c | 976.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 4c | 891.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 621.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 10c | 601.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 576.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 555.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 5c | 467.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 464.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 8c | 407.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 344.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 316.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…3803backed Yes | 10c | 208.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.