TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x135b…24f8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst F1 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT3076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+32.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$48.1
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+27.4%+$48.5
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.3%+$60.08
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$7.04
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+164.4%+$31.09
US strike on Syria by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+284.6%+$51.8
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$13.6
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$255.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$471
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$650.22
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$245.19
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+67.9%+$28.29
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$96
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$66.16
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.9
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+71.3%+$133.19
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+76.4%+$144.19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$16.5
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+63.7%+$59.3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$37
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$35.6
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$27.8
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+33.3%+$10
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+67.4%+$141.21
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.2
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$16.1
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+65.5%+$55.4
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nothing Ever Happens: Julybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+176.5%+$158.32
Mariners vs. Blue Jaysbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+38.9%+$3.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$5.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.