Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8901fbc64e2435a8b6301c5c6e92421f12ed1bb88c0b9b60f07adb8705e03597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 16c | 15,691$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.66 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,229$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…e819backed Yes | 1c | 2,920$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,262$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 13c | 2,239$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 1c | 1,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,619$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,514$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,425$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,133$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,088$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 1,041$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 10c | 982.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 8c | 920.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 856$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 6c | 841.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…1685backed Yes | 10c | 613.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed Yes | 5c | 540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +541%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 6c | 525.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 507.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 472$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +892.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 16c | 393.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 19c | 378.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 14c | 365$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 21c | 350.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 314$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 310$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…d584backed Yes | 5c | 308$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +346.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 78c | 265.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 30c | 252.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 207.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 77c | 194.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…7637backed Yes | 24c | 182.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…29fdbacked Yes | 19c | 133.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…e469backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 78c | 55.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.