Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f71be39edfa1d3140d92ce3c46381c6288646fad15ecec0a2fbad2d171eb03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 63c | 13,573$8,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,081.43 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 3c | 12,597$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,229.23 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 31c | 12,340$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,548.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 7,186$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.84 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 5c | 6,586$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,252.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +320.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 7c | 5,473$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,090.85 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 12c | 5,074$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.49 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 14c | 4,930$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.38 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 17c | 3,836$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.93 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed No | 13c | 3,822$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 3,677$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.89 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,256$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 2,950$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.93 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 76c | 2,281$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…bd55backed No | 1c | 2,253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 43c | 2,252$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.58 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 16c | 2,234$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.66 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 5c | 1,864$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 15c | 1,862$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 1,847$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.64 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,620$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.84 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 8c | 1,439$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 1,194$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.39 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 1,170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.84 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Yes | 78c | 1,163$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…3862backed No | 24c | 1,152$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,098$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.17 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 73c | 1,008$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 979.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.36 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…0f95backed No | 14c | 918.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 15c | 831$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 7c | 800$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 13c | 727.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.77 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 697.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed Yes | 4c | 540$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +541%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 511.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 6c | 508.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 472$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +892.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 17c | 470.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 37c | 445.65$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 10c | 401.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 16c | 369$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…d584backed Yes | 5c | 308$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +346.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 4c | 300.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +902.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 71c | 299.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed No | 6c | 280.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd99d…a5a3backed Yes | 5c | 275$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +580.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 5c | 271$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 256$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 6c | 203.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 6c | 200.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 22c | 182.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 164$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 36c | 107.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 17c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…8cebbacked No | 14c | 100.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 12c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.