Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d29774a8d2ac1b8c7d68030a28128b95bdbb2a98d9d1149edf02e72c97189e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d6a…0040backed Yes | 28c | 7,163$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 17c | 6,758$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.53 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 72c | 6,606$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.61 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,116$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.65 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,908$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed No | 79c | 2,197$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 13c | 1,800$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,495$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 26c | 958.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 681$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 7c | 652.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7c…ef52backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 79c | 600$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 12c | 554$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 27c | 520.88$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 10c | 471.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…16d8backed Yes | 7c | 468.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 12c | 417.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 9c | 410$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 79c | 354.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 272$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 266.73$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…f971backed Yes | 18c | 245$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 241.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 209.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…f03fbacked Yes | 13c | 175.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 15c | 173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 17c | 152$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 27c | 141.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 11c | 134.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 95.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 25c | 79.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…6c1fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 31c | 60.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…12edbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.