Us Politics · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0661c81efdbdafae13601cf9063f7cde89a282e5af44ceeb2f0c4cb705a7086f

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1b6d…e819backed Yes	1c	5,316$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes	12c	2,888$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes	8c	2,650$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	115	38.3%44 W · 71 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes	7c	1,653$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.55	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes	24c	1,520$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.99	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes	20c	1,475$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.91	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No	79c	1,312$1,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes	16c	1,301$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.54	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x568f…e469backed Yes	3c	1,100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes	10c	1,043$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	10c	1,010$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.3	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes	16c	871.62$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.46	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c04…1685backed Yes	15c	857.85$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.76	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Yes	24c	822.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	15c	801.33$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	152	43.4%66 W · 86 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc588…2949backed Yes	21c	774.17$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	12c	769.84$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.58	81	11.1%9 W · 72 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes	14c	765$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+41.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes	10c	760.29$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.57	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	76c	696.61$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.54	66	63.6%42 W · 24 L	+9.9wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	20c	650$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.81	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No	79c	646.92$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.24	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+6.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes	13c	614.42$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes	16c	573.03$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.5	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x892b…c7a7backed Yes	9c	540$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+541%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes	9c	472$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+892.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	11c	429$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	167	25.1%42 W · 125 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb088…3862backed Yes	16c	366.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes	5c	355.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked Yes	14c	350$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes	13c	319.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed Yes	25c	312.98$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eca…d04dbacked Yes	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x899d…8416backed Yes	13c	311.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d47…d584backed Yes	9c	308$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+346.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	293.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xedad…1af7backed Yes	21c	284.25$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	37cpaid	+51.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed Yes	27c	278.03$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	16c	258.56$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	15c	237.69$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.04	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf7…29fdbacked Yes	20c	195$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	14c	187.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa791…bf23backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	27cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3106…d672backed Yes	17c	117.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+3.5wins	+0.20per pick	27cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	9c	112.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	185	16.2%30 W · 155 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	11c	111$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	91	29.7%27 W · 64 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes	19c	110.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	87	36.8%32 W · 55 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes	16c	105$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b74…9791backed Yes	29c	97.42$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9d…afe6backed Yes	11c	89$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x135b…24f8backed Yes	23c	88.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	80	42.5%34 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	14c	85.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	183	22.4%41 W · 142 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…95fcbacked Yes	28c	70.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc609…77b3backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	78c	30.84$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.86	365	27.1%99 W · 266 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event