Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7657482d5c20c7a2c1d780726643bd5ec10ce22bf045489bb926e39c26ceb4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 2c | 5,532$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,773$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,816$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 999.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 9c | 999.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 3c | 843.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 19c | 699.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 29c | 637$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 11c | 563$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 9c | 380.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 11c | 366.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 6c | 365.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…3862backed Yes | 13c | 319.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 16c | 305.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 19c | 299.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 16c | 245.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…f971backed Yes | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 241.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 23c | 235$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 21c | 234.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 209.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 28c | 208.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 74c | 159.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 23c | 153.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 103.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 12c | 99.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…95fcbacked Yes | 21c | 93.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…4d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 14c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2339…c2b3backed Yes | 25c | 40.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.