TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96e9…8dc6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.26
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+92.1%+$36.83
Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.76
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$18.86
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+96.6%+$77.3
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-28.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+151.3%+$453.81
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$300
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+39.8%+$159.27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+55.5%+$110.93
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$10.27
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$10.09
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$102.54
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+56.3%+$84.38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+53.5%+$215
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$986Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.1%+$415.2
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+38.1%+$141.03
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+44.7%+$89.38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$67.8
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+43.3%+$130.05
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+106.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$123.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+27.2%+$5.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ludovit Klein · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.