Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec07d2cfa4062aab3fce993c5bc31f087034c8ae227c8fe0638b33d867f28ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 40c | 1,781$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.83 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 29c | 1,104$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.12 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdad…7a6fbacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…0c68backed Yes | 43c | 910$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 36c | 792.94$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…3671backed No | 57c | 769.43$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05b…d77ebacked Yes | 43c | 605$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 33c | 557.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5df…46dcbacked Yes | 43c | 390$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…8e59backed No | 57c | 205$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 178.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 28c | 173$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Yes | 35c | 142.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 30c | 139$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed No | 66c | 100.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…9b52backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 88.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…82ccbacked Yes | 27c | 67.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 34c | 58.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 15% and 20%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be greater than 20%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.