Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636c68020efbdb6556bcacd78f07d7db8d9bb432233bd5d3b542081262217a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 64c | 2,269$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 50c | 2,103$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.6 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.17 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 43c | 1,000$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 27c | 871.16$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 600$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 10c | 399.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…57ccbacked No | 72c | 366.38$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 53c | 348.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 75c | 319.68$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 45c | 299.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 25c | 296$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 222$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 173$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 59c | 173$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 64c | 168.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 32c | 156.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 66c | 105.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 65c | 82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…ebc1backed Yes | 24c | 79.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 32c | 69.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 35c | 64.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 40c | 60.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 22c | 49.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 46.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 46.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 33c | 42.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…7078backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 73c | 34.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 15% and 20%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be greater than 20%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.