AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007dbf92f1a25cd375383759ccfc1caa37efac0cd4f80a87dd737a55db4a29fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 8c | 12,940$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.54 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,326$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 7c | 6,100$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.88 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…25bcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,336$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 3,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…4d55backed Yes | 17c | 3,073$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed Yes | 15c | 2,630$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,319$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…4b5ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,302$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…205dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,248$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,128$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e68…687dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,784$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd96…f409backed Yes | 4c | 1,652$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 76c | 1,636$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.91 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…ca42backed Yes | 27c | 1,608$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…fb05backed Yes | 19c | 1,586$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed Yes | 3c | 1,585$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 78c | 1,457$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 78c | 1,367$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.82 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 80c | 1,342$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 1,121$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.02 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…2216backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 12c | 938.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 70c | 909.14$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.74 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 13c | 749.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…1175backed Yes | 14c | 732.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 716.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…ead8backed Yes | 19c | 692.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…e775backed Yes | 19c | 672.17$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 14c | 650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 18c | 596$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 17c | 582.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 19c | 576.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb05…9c30backed Yes | 4c | 551.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 77c | 550$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 9c | 520.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecd…6af4backed Yes | 14c | 518.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25aa…8208backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 420.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 11c | 372.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 16c | 349$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked No | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 78c | 266.37$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 262.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…6391backed Yes | 20c | 251.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…e394backed Yes | 9c | 250.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 19c | 247$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 14c | 233.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 5c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…222bbacked Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…4badbacked Yes | 10c | 205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…8e28backed No | 73c | 182.34$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 30c | 149$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…d596backed No | 70c | 139.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 16c | 128.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 16c | 126.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 126.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd66…8cecbacked Yes | 16c | 116.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…46d4backed Yes | 16c | 114.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…2b8ebacked Yes | 19c | 114.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…819abacked Yes | 27c | 113.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 113.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…8169backed Yes | 15c | 103.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…d978backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4da1backed Yes | 27c | 98.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 74c | 60.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked No | 74c | 57.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…ce0dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…9dd2backed Yes | 22c | 54.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…ab9cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 40c | 44.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 75c | 32.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 60c | 27.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbb…edc4backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…d8b4backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 71c | 22.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…308bbacked No | 79c | 22.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.