AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef1d53c8d5da95df81885e658dd3a30ae937bbe18bbe40cbb166058710fdff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $867,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $678,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $867,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 9c | 46,917$4,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,418.49 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 78c | 37,600$29,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,410.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 35,282$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.03 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…f61bbacked Yes | 2c | 34,057$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…697dbacked Yes | 2c | 22,584$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 28c | 21,397$5,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,927.75 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 22c | 16,937$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 22c | 16,798$3,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.83 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 20c | 15,600$3,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.04 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 76c | 15,500$11,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.55 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 25c | 15,215$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 69c | 9,664$6,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.42 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…df9bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,161$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…890dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,667$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 29c | 8,654$2,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…0ceabacked Yes | 19c | 8,225$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 8c | 6,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.21 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 6,199$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.32 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…00b3backed Yes | 9c | 6,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…55f5backed Yes | 30c | 5,785$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…24e2backed No | 70c | 5,699$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…e6e6backed No | 79c | 5,448$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 69c | 5,300$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 7c | 4,727$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +489.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes | 49c | 4,507$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 74c | 4,488$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…1060backed Yes | 2c | 4,325$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 72c | 4,197$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 4,051$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.93 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…7054backed Yes | 18c | 4,040$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…2bd0backed Yes | 1c | 3,969$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked No | 74c | 3,913$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,794$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 79c | 3,718$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…a1ecbacked No | 74c | 3,276$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…9d5fbacked Yes | 32c | 3,154$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…d707backed Yes | 8c | 3,042$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…01f2backed Yes | 11c | 3,001$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b03…7887backed Yes | 1c | 2,956$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…6ab4backed Yes | 23c | 2,933$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…1cfdbacked Yes | 29c | 2,932$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,921$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 78c | 2,900$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…8466backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…95fbbacked Yes | 25c | 2,736$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked No | 68c | 2,700$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce3…02c4backed Yes | 2c | 2,659$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 2,628$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.65 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeae…214abacked Yes | 2c | 2,521$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…bc09backed Yes | 14c | 2,511$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 6c | 2,453$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…3464backed Yes | 2c | 2,387$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…8908backed No | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e47…30c4backed Yes | 12c | 1,910$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…86d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,902$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 73c | 1,900$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1423…c07ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,782$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 79c | 1,764$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…2541backed No | 68c | 1,625$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 11c | 1,619$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…665ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,564$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed Yes | 10c | 1,558$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…3daabacked No | 78c | 1,519$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed No | 77c | 1,491$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 71c | 1,486$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.27 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,454$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…19a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,448$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…5c4abacked Yes | 7c | 1,434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a14…4b6abacked Yes | 8c | 1,394$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,289$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 30c | 1,156$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,149$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked Yes | 34c | 1,119$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,053$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…de39backed Yes | 9c | 1,012$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…725cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…0451backed No | 69c | 988.93$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 79c | 918.79$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9005…b202backed No | 66c | 892.65$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 19c | 855.64$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 849.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…aab9backed Yes | 24c | 842.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 20c | 778.17$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…90d3backed Yes | 11c | 742.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…ebd4backed No | 75c | 740$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…f9a0backed Yes | 7c | 728.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 3c | 710$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 27c | 699.98$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked No | 63c | 699.98$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…b621backed Yes | 7c | 662.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…486cbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 75c | 610.38$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.