AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1d8294981a89bc42520fe65c234684a64a6643fea82de99cac50b869f286e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,032,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,060,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,032,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 20c | 200,000$40,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,253.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…1d86backed No | 25c | 101,217$25,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,133.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 75c | 82,645$61,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,911.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…60a7backed No | 8c | 73,442$5,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,936.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…c092backed Yes | 66c | 73,149$48,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,145.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…72fcbacked Yes | 77c | 56,367$43,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,937.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaba…d031backed No | 36c | 45,344$16,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,408 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 67c | 44,739$29,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,890.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…f558backed Yes | 64c | 42,829$27,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,497.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed No | 33c | 42,409$14,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,019.53 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes | 70c | 41,500$28,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,624.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 9c | 35,700$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,157.31 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 72c | 34,727$25,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,561.48 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…684abacked Yes | 64c | 33,247$21,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,028.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 7c | 32,694$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.02 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…334ebacked No | 7c | 31,588$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…deccbacked No | 6c | 30,380$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 3c | 28,211$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 6c | 28,118$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.32 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 11c | 25,012$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.03 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…3ababacked Yes | 67c | 23,956$15,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,969.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…a5e2backed No | 9c | 21,097$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed No | 10c | 20,958$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes | 71c | 20,574$14,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,934.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…f11bbacked No | 11c | 20,565$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…044bbacked No | 4c | 20,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a3…9c26backed No | 13c | 19,161$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 13c | 18,608$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 15c | 17,434$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…0a33backed No | 15c | 17,102$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,638 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 8c | 16,977$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 11c | 16,612$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…c4f6backed No | 32c | 16,260$5,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…9527backed No | 42c | 16,007$6,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,724.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 79c | 15,005$11,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 28c | 15,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.67 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…fcb2backed No | 14c | 14,706$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…50d1backed No | 7c | 14,494$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 25c | 14,150$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.61 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…55b1backed No | 33c | 13,500$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6a54backed No | 13c | 11,992$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 30c | 11,500$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.69 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 6c | 11,373$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 79c | 11,197$8,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,334.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed No | 12c | 10,834$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 26c | 10,812$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 23c | 10,675$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.87 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 33c | 10,544$3,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,514.61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…43babacked Yes | 72c | 10,247$7,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed No | 43c | 10,000$4,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,280.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6a63backed Yes | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed No | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 18c | 10,000$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 19c | 9,794$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.65 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…b05abacked No | 9c | 9,397$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a29…46e7backed No | 8c | 9,267$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed No | 10c | 8,931$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…6915backed No | 27c | 8,817$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed No | 9c | 8,311$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…f031backed No | 12c | 8,224$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No | 9c | 8,167$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.59 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…4e3ebacked No | 12c | 8,158$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 21c | 7,900$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.99 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked No | 15c | 7,671$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 10c | 7,633$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.7 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…c37cbacked Yes | 68c | 7,600$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…bc45backed No | 6c | 7,472$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…9d47backed Yes | 67c | 7,300$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed No | 22c | 7,148$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…ec4fbacked Yes | 74c | 6,987$5,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…637dbacked Yes | 63c | 6,935$4,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked Yes | 72c | 6,712$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked No | 8c | 6,437$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…4b1ebacked No | 29c | 6,347$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 25c | 6,259$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked No | 31c | 6,255$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…a1ecbacked Yes | 75c | 6,250$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5d…5244backed No | 20c | 6,245$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c56fbacked Yes | 67c | 6,200$4,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…f97cbacked No | 12c | 6,033$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 30c | 6,020$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…597ebacked No | 32c | 5,973$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed No | 22c | 5,467$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed No | 26c | 5,422$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked No | 6c | 5,359$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked No | 16c | 5,301$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 6c | 5,233$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 5,228$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.43 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 12c | 5,220$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…9b58backed No | 24c | 5,109$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +82%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…1588backed No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 6c | 5,000$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…5e10backed Yes | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed No | 10c | 4,983$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…afecbacked No | 16c | 4,936$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 68c | 4,880$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.53 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…f74bbacked Yes | 70c | 4,753$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 15c | 4,750$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…cbadbacked No | 12c | 4,665$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.