AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca115707c2c17262646adee5b0eb92286d4761ad8ae76cea66f2f2df57e85f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,759,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,493,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,759,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 5c | 188,854$9,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,691.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes | 5c | 110,100$5,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,111 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…fffcbacked Yes | 58c | 70,250$41,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,074.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 2c | 69,874$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +413.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…385bbacked Yes | 5c | 63,260$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 6c | 58,615$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531.66 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked Yes | 9c | 58,316$5,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…ae61backed No | 76c | 42,592$32,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,316.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 41,477$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.13 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 7c | 40,065$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 9c | 38,760$3,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,341.39 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 61c | 37,550$23,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,495.43 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 5c | 36,188$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 9c | 35,433$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,282.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…59d0backed Yes | 9c | 33,598$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 6c | 33,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…f21ebacked Yes | 10c | 30,000$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…3ababacked Yes | 31c | 29,731$9,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,180.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…684abacked Yes | 44c | 25,923$11,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,310.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…1d86backed No | 57c | 25,114$14,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,843.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 7c | 24,778$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.31 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…1533backed Yes | 4c | 23,544$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e78…4d28backed Yes | 5c | 22,693$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 42c | 21,267$8,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,887.3 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 48c | 21,000$10,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,915.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…f74bbacked Yes | 5c | 20,976$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…4409backed No | 69c | 20,001$13,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…ad56backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…c495backed Yes | 7c | 20,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 71c | 19,871$14,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 19,826$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.23 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…597ebacked Yes | 3c | 19,485$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 18,437$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.89 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 6c | 17,448$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x768d…5eeabacked Yes | 10c | 16,499$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6a63backed Yes | 2c | 15,972$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,808$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.66 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 15,687$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.01 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…0ceabacked Yes | 7c | 15,599$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 6c | 15,115$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…8dfbbacked Yes | 42c | 14,890$6,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,215.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…ffacbacked Yes | 7c | 14,860$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 9c | 14,696$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…c416backed Yes | 60c | 14,224$8,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,499.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,997$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 28c | 13,838$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927.28 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 71c | 13,210$9,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.2 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…c73cbacked Yes | 27c | 12,187$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked No | 80c | 11,911$9,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.93 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 3c | 11,656$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…7907backed Yes | 36c | 11,374$4,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,102.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…a8f3backed Yes | 9c | 11,127$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…cba0backed No | 49c | 10,820$5,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…1588backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…cd15backed No | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 9,966$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.37 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…29e9backed Yes | 5c | 9,863$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…8664backed Yes | 4c | 9,847$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…f371backed Yes | 1c | 9,702$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…1c2abacked Yes | 51c | 9,600$4,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,857 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,090$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…c5f3backed Yes | 11c | 9,033$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed Yes | 8c | 8,796$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,421$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 5c | 8,280$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 15c | 8,135$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.07 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 4c | 8,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…239fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,806$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 49c | 7,735$3,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.63 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fba…db3abacked Yes | 10c | 7,678$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 3c | 7,550$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 46c | 7,524$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,083.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…23c7backed Yes | 11c | 7,343$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 75c | 7,226$5,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.13 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 7,185$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.6 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…4b1ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,095$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 6c | 7,041$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.82 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…1060backed Yes | 7c | 7,026$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…0891backed Yes | 1c | 7,011$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 7,001$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…4dccbacked Yes | 5c | 6,925$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…aa62backed Yes | 8c | 6,780$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…c10fbacked No | 54c | 6,334$3,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 10c | 6,294$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.19 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked No | 66c | 6,096$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 77c | 5,937$4,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.1 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaba…d031backed Yes | 7c | 5,757$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…3b61backed No | 46c | 5,730$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec5…6b1abacked Yes | 32c | 5,708$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…9433backed Yes | 49c | 5,661$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…faaabacked No | 61c | 5,478$3,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 5,192$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.11 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…30b6backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…194bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,990$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…2541backed No | 60c | 4,982$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4a…25b2backed Yes | 10c | 4,857$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 48c | 4,719$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.