AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e380ea07550bd6b3cfa6707c683ab2969d218fbdaa65339bcfef4292225f7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 8c | 13,058$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 8c | 10,919$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.04 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,557$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 15c | 9,150$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +310.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 6,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,228$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…1bb0backed Yes | 9c | 1,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…21d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 80c | 1,099$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.74 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Yes | 9c | 847.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 20c | 805.36$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 499.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 11c | 453.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 6c | 345.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…c7c7backed Yes | 48c | 336.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…5bb0backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 6c | 328.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cad…881abacked Yes | 11c | 328.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…8efcbacked Yes | 26c | 291.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…f8adbacked Yes | 7c | 256.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 8c | 252.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…541dbacked Yes | 10c | 242.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 11c | 221.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb688…75a6backed No | 78c | 204.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b6f2backed Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 76c | 158.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…cbb9backed No | 60c | 141.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 16c | 133.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed Yes | 14c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…6ee7backed No | 80c | 101.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 76c | 87.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…eb1ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…17d1backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked No | 80c | 26.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…d99cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.