AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd256d11b5ccaf11bfc213e2c01cb5b5d7cfc090bf9ff102d429897d590c076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $978,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $914,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $978,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c5f…1d86backed No | 1c | 541,911$6,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,869.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 1c | 25,014$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 0c | 24,389$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 2c | 17,821$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.99 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 1c | 17,459$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 3c | 17,309$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.77 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 1c | 14,970$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…fb96backed No | 2c | 10,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…ee7bbacked No | 2c | 9,890$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…1524backed No | 1c | 6,817$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed No | 5c | 6,312$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed No | 1c | 6,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 2c | 5,643$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed No | 3c | 5,554$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…a538backed No | 2c | 5,405$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…38e5backed No | 2c | 5,296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 3c | 4,093$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…a9c1backed No | 2c | 3,619$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 4c | 3,515$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed No | 2c | 3,333$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…e1c3backed No | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed No | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed No | 5c | 2,820$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 1c | 2,728$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…e6cebacked No | 1c | 2,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 0c | 2,453$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…5a73backed No | 2c | 2,431$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…fe5cbacked No | 3c | 2,290$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked No | 3c | 2,206$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +413.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 1c | 1,940$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 3c | 1,910$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…ecd7backed No | 2c | 1,890$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…ded9backed No | 3c | 1,842$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 2c | 1,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…afecbacked No | 1c | 1,744$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20e…6901backed No | 9c | 1,689$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 1c | 1,525$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d05…f421backed No | 3c | 1,513$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…e7fbbacked No | 1c | 1,491$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192c…184fbacked No | 1c | 1,248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…b2a4backed No | 3c | 1,210$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed No | 1c | 1,184$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed No | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…4351backed No | 3c | 1,100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…b689backed No | 3c | 1,099$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ad…4bc9backed No | 6c | 1,059$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,016$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 3c | 1,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…a9bfbacked No | 3c | 956.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b37bbacked No | 3c | 925$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…fc21backed No | 2c | 905.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed No | 1c | 882.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…e5b6backed No | 3c | 866.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…1154backed No | 2c | 829.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 2c | 759.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7f…53e2backed No | 1c | 721.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked No | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 4c | 699.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…0ff7backed No | 1c | 681.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…b19fbacked No | 3c | 656.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…d964backed No | 5c | 619.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed No | 4c | 560$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked No | 4c | 549.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…3b17backed No | 4c | 531.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 4c | 506.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 3c | 501.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…9527backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…a01cbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked No | 3c | 483.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…4bffbacked No | 5c | 449.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…cc98backed No | 3c | 439.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed No | 2c | 411.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 3c | 391.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…ccb3backed No | 8c | 360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…f614backed No | 3c | 288.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2662backed No | 6c | 258.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked No | 10c | 209.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400a…a281backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4db…692cbacked No | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.