AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb65d38b20b1405e0f246ce4ae2d027a17537986d7af927cabf974eff17e0868f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,951,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,925,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,951,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,564 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed No | 66c | 172,303$114,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,273.16 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 44cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 82,897$8,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,124.85 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 35c | 79,446$27,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,815.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec5…6b1abacked Yes | 2c | 65,617$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46da…107abacked Yes | 36c | 44,022$15,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,688.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 35,826$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.6 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…7907backed No | 48c | 32,564$15,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,932.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 59c | 31,396$18,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,018.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed No | 48c | 30,113$14,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,768.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…5e15backed Yes | 32c | 29,094$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…71f1backed Yes | 56c | 28,423$15,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,913.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 61c | 28,268$17,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,069.54 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…1060backed Yes | 26c | 27,792$7,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,212.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 25c | 27,185$6,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,795 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 60c | 26,278$15,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,825.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…0219backed Yes | 53c | 25,116$13,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,370.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 31c | 24,523$7,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,553.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…c416backed Yes | 15c | 23,099$3,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,513.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…9433backed No | 57c | 22,566$12,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,663 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 40c | 21,667$8,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,072 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 33c | 20,566$6,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,678.34 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…8908backed No | 52c | 19,980$10,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,607.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 48c | 19,604$9,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,232.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 18,738$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.85 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2627…fb07backed Yes | 6c | 18,491$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d2…9875backed No | 57c | 17,719$10,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,550.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 7c | 17,388$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.97 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Yes | 14c | 17,309$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…4dccbacked Yes | 4c | 16,497$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 39c | 16,487$6,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,131.49 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 31c | 16,453$5,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,135.53 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…4daabacked Yes | 12c | 15,400$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…0fc6backed Yes | 20c | 15,113$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed No | 37c | 14,930$5,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,412.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…72fcbacked No | 51c | 14,778$7,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,212.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…c5f3backed Yes | 3c | 14,554$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 43c | 14,319$6,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,229.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 55c | 13,603$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 43c | 12,434$5,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,050.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Yes | 16c | 11,573$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 51c | 10,682$5,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,184.25 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…a4a2backed Yes | 51c | 10,587$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,545$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…9a3cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,481$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked Yes | 30c | 10,175$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…8dfbbacked Yes | 39c | 10,161$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 55c | 10,000$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…af32backed Yes | 22c | 9,945$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 32c | 9,491$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…97e3backed No | 48c | 9,325$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 71c | 9,248$6,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5d3dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,086$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 9,079$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 31c | 8,977$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…2beebacked Yes | 16c | 8,671$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 41c | 8,580$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.04 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…1fb1backed Yes | 13c | 8,372$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,371$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Yes | 60c | 8,259$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,955.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 22c | 7,792$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 51c | 7,740$3,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.22 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9005…b202backed Yes | 43c | 7,622$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 8c | 7,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…239fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,433$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…e5bdbacked Yes | 14c | 7,275$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…59d0backed Yes | 7c | 7,208$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…7054backed Yes | 48c | 7,102$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 6,986$4,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,786.74 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 6,956$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.97 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…96f6backed No | 56c | 6,906$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 64c | 6,784$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…69a4backed Yes | 12c | 6,583$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 18c | 6,489$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.21 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…697dbacked Yes | 28c | 6,474$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked No | 56c | 6,440$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…dcd1backed Yes | 6c | 6,414$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…71dbbacked Yes | 59c | 6,372$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,739.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 30c | 6,308$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.23 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…e12dbacked Yes | 35c | 6,233$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked No | 17c | 6,000$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,964.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…a569backed No | 40c | 6,000$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 64c | 5,988$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,860.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…57c2backed No | 42c | 5,953$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,453.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…bc22backed Yes | 11c | 5,904$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…614abacked Yes | 65c | 5,658$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…7b2abacked No | 62c | 5,446$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…fc28backed Yes | 2c | 5,368$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…5061backed Yes | 39c | 5,336$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b0…4458backed Yes | 15c | 5,242$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 42c | 5,232$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.21 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…24e2backed No | 62c | 5,200$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked No | 56c | 5,173$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 32c | 5,089$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.81 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 64c | 5,037$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…f4bebacked Yes | 7c | 4,907$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…439bbacked Yes | 61c | 4,901$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 58c | 4,885$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…5cb9backed Yes | 24c | 4,609$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ff…75adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,559$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.