Us Politics · resolved market
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe316d64008aa63d5398872dbecd61e6b40b7c1797acbe499686cd6bde5397113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 14,086$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 1c | 12,363$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 1c | 7,547$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,465$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.93 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 4,742$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,739$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,523$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 4,064$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 4c | 4,035$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,959$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 3,805$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 2c | 3,677$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 4c | 3,077$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…9e84backed Yes | 4c | 2,782$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,621$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 2c | 2,589$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,506$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,375$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed Yes | 3c | 2,210$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 5c | 1,712$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,700$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,482$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 1,414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,316$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…ca64backed Yes | 10c | 1,127$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 965.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 7c | 908.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 3c | 877.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 3c | 871.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 8c | 823$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 768$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…4d41backed Yes | 10c | 760$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 722.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 689.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 681.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…95a5backed Yes | 2c | 666$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 5c | 657.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 651.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…d1cfbacked Yes | 5c | 650.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 2c | 585.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 9c | 568.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 7c | 521.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 3c | 504.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 5c | 454.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 4c | 436.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 428.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 3c | 363.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…a683backed Yes | 6c | 324.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 8c | 314$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 270.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 253.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 9c | 195.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 7c | 194.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 10c | 151$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?this page
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 12 or later?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 1?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?Yes won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.