Us Politics · resolved market
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2316582155fa9ae666029ae979f598e8f4f3ea1ab8d030f62fa66a2c9577f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $448,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $320,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $448,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb425…366bbacked Yes | 12c | 24,890$3,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 19,596$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.11 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 10c | 12,439$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.73 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 8c | 12,401$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 24c | 11,663$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 11c | 11,558$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 9c | 10,005$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.58 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 8c | 9,276$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.74 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,467$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +300%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 10c | 5,316$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 5,293$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.96 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 13c | 4,994$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,986$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Yes | 10c | 4,497$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 7c | 4,315$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,062$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 77c | 3,804$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 11c | 3,757$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 9c | 2,413$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.56 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 29c | 2,024$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,922$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…608abacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,870$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 1,715$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa0…de82backed Yes | 9c | 1,596$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…4bf6backed Yes | 13c | 1,505$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 9c | 1,427$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,426$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 7c | 1,416$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 10c | 1,032$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 10c | 931.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…657fbacked Yes | 10c | 836.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 7c | 768$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 755.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 9c | 754$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 14c | 718.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 6c | 700.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 8c | 684.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 653.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…2e60backed Yes | 15c | 646.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 644.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 2c | 607.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 578.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 10c | 525.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Yes | 14c | 499.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 11c | 490$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 21c | 471.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +164%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes | 3c | 442.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 400.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 10c | 345$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…1685backed Yes | 15c | 318.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 6c | 293.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes | 9c | 276.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 11c | 266.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 266$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Yes | 5c | 260.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…4f87backed Yes | 7c | 260.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 11c | 223.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…4b92backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…e469backed Yes | 9c | 187.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 7c | 164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 10c | 158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked Yes | 10c | 153.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 9c | 139.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…1742backed Yes | 34c | 35.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?this page
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 12 or later?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 1?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?Yes won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8?No won
- Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.