TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$928,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$959,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked No23c36,270$8,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,370.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+224.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked No26c35,304$9,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,279.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…366bbacked Yes41c35,000$14,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,538.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No66c23,732$15,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,688.634339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes76c21,838$16,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.233321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3227…2727backed Yes79c19,723$15,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,055.21560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes51c18,170$9,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,819.8323149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes29c17,454$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,331.243234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf656…657fbacked No25c15,350$3,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,843.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No18c14,714$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.2931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No50c13,360$6,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,740.155442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes80c10,938$8,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.134057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed No2c10,693$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No15c9,126$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.776663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5bde…8b95backed No40c8,141$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.9460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1761…b3cdbacked No21c7,443$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed No73c7,373$5,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.461811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed No12c7,250$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.75130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No65c7,234$4,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,737.2710211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes71c6,080$4,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.664542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No62c5,999$3,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.387458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No72c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6001656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No68c4,683$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.295135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes39c4,593$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.546028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7a…6f28backed No65c4,574$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No23c4,379$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.0960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be2…08c0backed No68c4,141$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,81910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No51c4,141$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.448736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5080…610bbacked No66c4,118$2,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,71520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No0c4,112$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.263989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed No23c4,054$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.351040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked No54c3,874$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0803030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed No30c3,782$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.821822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed No62c3,500$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12a…95a5backed No14c3,258$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes44c3,103$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.5116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No10c3,082$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.2118516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed No41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No21c2,552$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.788517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No66c2,502$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.252437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No15c2,497$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.716015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes35c2,315$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.721752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No18c2,227$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.823023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No50c2,203$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.181816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked No39c2,133$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.761050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes66c2,065$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.033435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No29c2,024$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.357638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed No80c2,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed No78c1,939$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.982321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a6e…1b79backed No47c1,752$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e2…ebc5backed No66c1,669$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes57c1,610$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.0510324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No48c1,608$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.342065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No23c1,500$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3392934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed No65c1,393$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No37c1,355$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.934839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes65c1,303$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No76c1,249$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.125451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes11c1,221$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.8939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed Yes44c1,162$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.072429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No44c1,136$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50213714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes29c1,122$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8d…c777backed No1c1,118$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No43c1,114$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1413216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3d9abacked No21c1,107$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9670%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd878…74efbacked No46c1,045$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No49c1,039$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7211538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Yes37c1,000$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6a…0040backed No48c1,000$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.23911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-75.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No32c968.85$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.938111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No54c929.36$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No27c867.52$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+185.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No41c867.18$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.024117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c867.06$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.451,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes43c853.24$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.5711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No52c779$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+300%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes33c768$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.385922%13 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd605…0653backed No19c755$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes71c747.51$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.451275%9 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c746.48$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes42c709.76$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.618057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes37c688.21$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.6737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed No44c674.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe709…9d39backed Yes60c654.18$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.83141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c653.29$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes32c619.84$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.8215155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes28c594.93$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.146010%6 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No41c592.05$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.421612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No42c534$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.025635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd124…b1c6backed No47c519.07$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed No51c500$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.117724.7%19 W · 58 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd02d…17e8backed Yes73c456.89$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.341172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No66c456.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed No33c448.67$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.772657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa29c…4408backed No18c422$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked No4c413$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked No17c410.83$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc74…d248backed No51c400.65$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4798…e795backed No48c400$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No40c383.19$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.337441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.