Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f066a1d04336aa3195b2aa001d3e62fa51559f2d2614f8b621fb66c747e0148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,081,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,036,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,081,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 725 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 15c | 24,442$3,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…fd89backed No | 2c | 20,107$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed No | 7c | 16,891$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…2c9bbacked No | 0c | 14,193$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked No | 10c | 14,018$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 7c | 13,668$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.05 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…52c2backed No | 10c | 13,158$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 12,020$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…cb20backed No | 1c | 12,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…d78ebacked No | 1c | 11,979$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56c…fcecbacked No | 19c | 11,457$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 5c | 11,367$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed No | 13c | 11,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed No | 5c | 10,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 7c | 10,214$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…88a5backed No | 11c | 10,000$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…98c1backed No | 10c | 9,256$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 3c | 9,246$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 15c | 9,150$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.55 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0793…7cfabacked No | 20c | 9,049$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed No | 7c | 8,982$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked No | 7c | 8,838$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 7c | 8,613$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.86 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 68c | 8,571$5,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,728.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 30c | 8,531$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.41 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked No | 2c | 8,318$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 6c | 7,517$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…283fbacked No | 14c | 7,099$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 18c | 7,000$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.61 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 15c | 6,653$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed No | 9c | 6,637$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 68c | 6,417$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 17c | 6,368$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.5 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f285backed No | 13c | 6,300$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…218cbacked No | 48c | 6,249$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 8c | 6,156$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.86 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed No | 23c | 6,054$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 69c | 6,003$4,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.96 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 78c | 5,804$4,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…839bbacked No | 7c | 5,683$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42b…8392backed No | 6c | 5,324$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 8c | 5,138$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 5,038$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3a7ebacked No | 15c | 5,031$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…f400backed No | 13c | 4,658$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 7c | 4,626$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…8807backed No | 11c | 4,602$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 9c | 4,351$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.49 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…8efcbacked No | 21c | 4,289$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed No | 8c | 4,247$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed No | 10c | 3,942$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b25…1910backed No | 15c | 3,910$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed No | 11c | 3,852$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 16c | 3,771$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 3,652$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…3582backed No | 9c | 3,517$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6720…964fbacked No | 10c | 3,450$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…2e23backed No | 8c | 3,326$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed No | 23c | 3,323$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…304dbacked No | 8c | 3,158$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed No | 3c | 3,106$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 8c | 3,104$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.33 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…e050backed No | 19c | 3,068$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed No | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…4437backed No | 14c | 2,970$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…458cbacked No | 24c | 2,774$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 19c | 2,753$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.54 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 2,712$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…9133backed No | 21c | 2,674$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…e51fbacked No | 18c | 2,661$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed No | 5c | 2,620$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…cc30backed No | 6c | 2,550$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 4c | 2,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…51aabacked No | 20c | 2,494$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…4f13backed No | 9c | 2,480$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed No | 20c | 2,400$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 4c | 2,374$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…0879backed No | 8c | 2,365$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked No | 13c | 2,351$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…1fa2backed No | 13c | 2,193$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…304ebacked No | 4c | 2,179$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…207abacked No | 3c | 2,125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 34c | 2,107$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.75 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked No | 13c | 2,085$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 8c | 2,063$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked No | 11c | 2,039$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…2d05backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…d193backed No | 20c | 1,999$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 3c | 1,968$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed No | 9c | 1,957$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb73c…d1afbacked No | 8c | 1,948$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…83d0backed No | 18c | 1,913$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…78c9backed No | 2c | 1,910$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked No | 1c | 1,901$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Yes | 79c | 1,898$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…27d0backed Yes | 78c | 1,888$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…37adbacked No | 9c | 1,858$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…a5b7backed No | 15c | 1,817$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?this page
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.