Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367b896d6e5f3d59afd52b212910542e37c01c8626dc783466ddea7a93208094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 20,777$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.54 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 14,955$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.27 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 3c | 10,166$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…bd55backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…0040backed Yes | 16c | 9,509$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 11c | 8,315$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 6,768$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.02 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,989$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 5c | 4,350$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 8c | 3,925$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.57 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 3,417$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 3,189$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.93 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,088$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.71 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 3,024$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.88 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 2,657$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.68 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,546$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 12c | 2,517$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.53 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,958$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,955$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.36 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 20c | 1,201$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,173$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 1,166$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 15c | 1,030$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +320.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 5c | 994.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 3c | 925.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 638.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 27c | 625$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…e819backed Yes | 7c | 611.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 607.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 5c | 586.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 577.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 558.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 544$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed Yes | 4c | 540$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +541%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 8c | 530$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 4c | 521$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 5c | 483.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 14c | 430.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 10c | 427.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 9c | 425.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Yes | 14c | 415.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 399$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 9c | 371.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 4c | 344.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…d584backed Yes | 5c | 307.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +346.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 267$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Yes | 18c | 253.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…3df6backed Yes | 17c | 232.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 19c | 211.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…8416backed Yes | 14c | 201.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…2e28backed Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99d…a5a3backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +580.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 199.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 8c | 190.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 14c | 178.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 13c | 158$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 18c | 131.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 20c | 117.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 9c | 113.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…e216backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 80c | 49.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.