Us Politics · resolved market

Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519f1af16da732dc2da00b0f7e38f9ae4d414641dfa6b9bc445915be28624d69

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,718 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x049a…b22abacked Yes	4c	2,836$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.32	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	15c	2,833$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.51	66	18.2%12 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-46%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed No	79c	2,364$1,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.67	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.8wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+76.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d6a…0040backed Yes	32c	2,215$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes	11c	1,658$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.07	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes	20c	1,600$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.87	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes	3c	1,300$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	9c	1,121$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.78	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bee…6e64backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.06	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	19c	1,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes	21c	1,000$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.5	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc588…2949backed Yes	23c	871.43$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	79c	698.46$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.92	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes	11c	444.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d39…47a5backed Yes	12c	375$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	295.81$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…6c1fbacked Yes	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes	24c	258.51$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e7…f971backed Yes	15c	245$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843c…8405backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	19c	196$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes	21c	140.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	17c	135.73$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	183	22.4%41 W · 142 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	12c	134.23$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes	15c	131$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	105.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	106	32.1%34 W · 72 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	77	24.7%19 W · 58 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-4.2wins	-0.20per pick	39cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes	11c	92.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	87	36.8%32 W · 55 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	74c	19.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
Will a candidate other than Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani win the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event