TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,779,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,553,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,779,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,939 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d8c…1eb7backed No0c1,125,676$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed No1c1,096,884$5,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,797.940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x883e…81a8backed No1c977,384$11,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,161.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked No0c806,233$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked No0c696,780$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bef…19b2backed No1c659,270$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,614.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed No1c645,501$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f3…c2c2backed No0c517,145$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.61428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No1c481,378$5,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,690.488641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc79e…8cccbacked No0c477,518$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked No0c434,516$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…65e2backed No1c418,715$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…16b3backed No0c371,296$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…1b9dbacked No0c359,193$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b61…5e41backed No1c345,071$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc35…5341backed No0c315,798$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0292…dccfbacked No0c304,300$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No1c264,421$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1b…2c14backed No1c252,238$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47f…1ef8backed No2c251,814$5,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,957.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed No0c250,000$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.162015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked No0c249,897$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked No1c243,062$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No3c242,314$6,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1631758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No1c220,224$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.251450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2256…2225backed No0c217,030$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…0126backed No1c213,810$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1802240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked No1c202,780$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada8…2585backed No1c189,648$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…933cbacked No1c181,769$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2515…a872backed No0c181,610$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No2c170,725$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.511656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4c…dd95backed No1c170,367$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c74…ba3fbacked No1c170,211$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No0c168,769$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.77600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3041…ec85backed No0c168,675$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6732…f90bbacked No2c163,221$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2844…10f7backed No3c157,432$4,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2872…2866backed No1c147,520$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…7231backed No0c144,760$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389c…99d1backed No1c134,971$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No1c129,275$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.752850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c43…181abacked No0c126,322$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No0c125,000$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2842030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…9eacbacked No1c118,216$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1b…2784backed No0c116,136$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…5771backed No1c114,839$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc065…0fcabacked No0c112,917$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a3…c301backed No0c112,581$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No0c111,312$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.55911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6369…dadbbacked No0c110,710$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No1c110,000$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f35…4bf6backed No0c108,731$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b37…b143backed No0c107,263$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7f…3ef4backed No1c106,016$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed No1c103,822$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No1c100,959$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.413622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1df…8c07backed No1c100,871$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae2…d63ebacked No2c100,123$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked No1c99,548$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6641921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf89…57e3backed No1c97,754$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f4…2c55backed No1c96,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…6cd7backed No0c93,338$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa176…cdc9backed No1c93,072$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…f949backed No1c92,697$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No1c92,669$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.134742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…416dbacked No0c88,952$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3f…fd51backed No1c87,484$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb535…1b48backed No1c87,351$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed No1c84,524$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63c9…5d89backed No0c81,916$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e2…ebc5backed No1c81,667$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce57…a278backed No2c81,117$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c1…75c7backed No1c80,833$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…1e83backed No1c80,707$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked No1c79,898$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe36d…6b21backed No0c79,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b6…0ea2backed No0c78,975$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x055f…d83abacked No1c78,361$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2c…4cb3backed No1c77,278$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a50…7f3abacked No1c75,600$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94550%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac0…f261backed No0c74,760$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.521030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+495.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa31…a885backed No0c73,804$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa532…a660backed No1c73,513$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No0c71,574$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c6…6ed6backed No1c71,000$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed No1c70,500$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1bd…23fabacked No1c69,889$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7780%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x381f…3f56backed No0c69,467$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…fdb6backed No1c69,148$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No0c68,594$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.592236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8f…aa29backed No1c68,543$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9bf…9440backed No0c68,397$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…d4b6backed No1c66,583$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c4…1ca7backed No3c66,239$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93d…3278backed No1c65,548$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c07…48d9backed No14c64,838$8,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,889.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e3…9468backed No0c64,650$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed No2c64,576$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd846…6427backed No0c63,689$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.