Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2f19935f2a969634a7aca52b69cf653d957ec6243bdfcb97dd830003e90624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,779,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,553,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,779,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,939 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d8c…1eb7backed No | 0c | 1,125,676$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed No | 1c | 1,096,884$5,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,797.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…81a8backed No | 1c | 977,384$11,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,161.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 0c | 806,233$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked No | 0c | 696,780$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…19b2backed No | 1c | 659,270$4,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,614.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 1c | 645,501$3,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,788.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 0c | 517,145$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 481,378$5,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690.48 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…8cccbacked No | 0c | 477,518$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…72ccbacked No | 0c | 434,516$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 1c | 418,715$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…16b3backed No | 0c | 371,296$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…1b9dbacked No | 0c | 359,193$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…5e41backed No | 1c | 345,071$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…5341backed No | 0c | 315,798$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0292…dccfbacked No | 0c | 304,300$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 1c | 264,421$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…2c14backed No | 1c | 252,238$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…1ef8backed No | 2c | 251,814$5,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,957.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed No | 0c | 250,000$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked No | 0c | 249,897$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 1c | 243,062$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 3c | 242,314$6,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,163 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 1c | 220,224$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…2225backed No | 0c | 217,030$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed No | 1c | 213,810$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked No | 1c | 202,780$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…2585backed No | 1c | 189,648$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…933cbacked No | 1c | 181,769$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a872backed No | 0c | 181,610$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 2c | 170,725$3,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,683.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed No | 1c | 170,367$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…ba3fbacked No | 1c | 170,211$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 0c | 168,769$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…ec85backed No | 0c | 168,675$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…f90bbacked No | 2c | 163,221$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,941.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed No | 3c | 157,432$4,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…2866backed No | 1c | 147,520$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…7231backed No | 0c | 144,760$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed No | 1c | 134,971$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 1c | 129,275$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…181abacked No | 0c | 126,322$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 0c | 125,000$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…9eacbacked No | 1c | 118,216$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2784backed No | 0c | 116,136$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…5771backed No | 1c | 114,839$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked No | 0c | 112,917$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…c301backed No | 0c | 112,581$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 0c | 111,312$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…dadbbacked No | 0c | 110,710$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 1c | 110,000$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…4bf6backed No | 0c | 108,731$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…b143backed No | 0c | 107,263$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…3ef4backed No | 1c | 106,016$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 1c | 103,822$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 1c | 100,959$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.41 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1df…8c07backed No | 1c | 100,871$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…d63ebacked No | 2c | 100,123$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 1c | 99,548$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…57e3backed No | 1c | 97,754$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…2c55backed No | 1c | 96,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…6cd7backed No | 0c | 93,338$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa176…cdc9backed No | 1c | 93,072$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…f949backed No | 1c | 92,697$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 1c | 92,669$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.13 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 0c | 88,952$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…fd51backed No | 1c | 87,484$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb535…1b48backed No | 1c | 87,351$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed No | 1c | 84,524$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c9…5d89backed No | 0c | 81,916$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…ebc5backed No | 1c | 81,667$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce57…a278backed No | 2c | 81,117$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…75c7backed No | 1c | 80,833$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…1e83backed No | 1c | 80,707$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked No | 1c | 79,898$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…6b21backed No | 0c | 79,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…0ea2backed No | 0c | 78,975$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…d83abacked No | 1c | 78,361$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2c…4cb3backed No | 1c | 77,278$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a50…7f3abacked No | 1c | 75,600$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…f261backed No | 0c | 74,760$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…a885backed No | 0c | 73,804$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a660backed No | 1c | 73,513$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 0c | 71,574$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…6ed6backed No | 1c | 71,000$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed No | 1c | 70,500$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked No | 1c | 69,889$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…3f56backed No | 0c | 69,467$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…fdb6backed No | 1c | 69,148$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 0c | 68,594$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…aa29backed No | 1c | 68,543$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…9440backed No | 0c | 68,397$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed No | 1c | 66,583$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…1ca7backed No | 3c | 66,239$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…3278backed No | 1c | 65,548$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed No | 14c | 64,838$8,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,889.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e3…9468backed No | 0c | 64,650$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed No | 2c | 64,576$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…6427backed No | 0c | 63,689$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.