TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x89c7…3ff0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$148.07
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$339.21
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+53.6%+$82.1
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+400%+$80
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$127
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+128.5%+$128.46
Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+252.1%+$71.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+680.1%+$516.86
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.67
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.88
Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.59
Will Israel not strike Yemen by 15 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$384.02
Another Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$311.64
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$327.06
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$781Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$781.33
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST2718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$115
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+669.2%+$261
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+421.3%+$337.01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+149.3%+$149.35
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+566.7%+$144.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$24.15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25.19
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.55
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$256.9
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$49.68
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+492.6%+$2,674.69
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,010Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+55.2%+$1,109.76
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,064Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+127.9%+$1,360.96
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+188.1%+$4,701.85
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.