TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes6c6,922$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0219531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes37c5,843$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.123732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c4,509$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.6242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes65c4,169$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No70c4,074$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.053076.7%23 W · 7 L+6.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No79c3,732$2,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.275455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes17c3,515$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.1620823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No80c3,260$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.6564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x431a…463fbacked Yes46c3,222$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c2,821$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No42c2,570$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.388552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes45c2,526$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.7542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes73c2,509$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.426546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes5c2,252$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.594231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes42c2,046$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.3223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.151128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…4710backed No70c1,805$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No62c1,729$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.2833337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No62c1,608$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.9814129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No48c1,496$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.0731649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Yes68c1,472$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No62c1,442$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.0447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes33c1,362$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.589217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked No67c1,350$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No35c1,015$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.3318151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No38c999.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.999955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes18c995.11$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.55649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No41c980.94$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.466944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed No32c973.39$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.442015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes5c950$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0317646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes16c929.54$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes12c894$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbea…7662backed Yes41c817.39$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No65c805$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.520736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes31c779.97$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.593145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked No65c777.81$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.231752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0372…a86bbacked Yes41c724.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x36ba…ad90backed No71c709.28$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.265100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+135.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes55c701.81$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.87258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ca7…6149backed Yes55c700$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3841136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes30c697.27$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.345633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked Yes41c651.3$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.922920.7%6 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1616…a3fabacked No58c626.87$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.18785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes5c625.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c623.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes28c610.42$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked No67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes42c596.48$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.474341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e9…5e83backed No49c593.46$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d72backed Yes7c569.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No70c568.03$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.733953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes39c537.1$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.479626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…a199backed No53c502.66$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c459.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No79c453.75$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No47c429.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.6517740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14420247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No44c382.72$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.9810153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4f…1943backed Yes54c371.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked No64c363.71$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.574540%18 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No44c360.51$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.734440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No45c345$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes31c342.15$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No48c340.43$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4921160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes5c319.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.983588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No68c318.3$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8621259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1057851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed No36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1924429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes55c299.74$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes40c299.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No43c297.81$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.613438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c293.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes19c287.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.664445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes38c277.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.614141.5%17 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6af6…296ebacked Yes44c272.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5019…ab07backed Yes43c268.34$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d8…d750backed No76c257.37$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No76c252.3$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.591428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No35c250$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…1047backed No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.12263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec45…94eebacked Yes43c227.35$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes20c224.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c220.9$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes60c220.71$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.995028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes26c210$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.87838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes55c200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1095152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6416061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc616…c449backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No43c199.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1145360.4%32 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa284…49edbacked Yes50c198.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…b97bbacked No50c198.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.251833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes18c191.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5128943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No59c185.86$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.413645.6%62 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No43c172.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9d…57ecbacked Yes6c172.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes10c163.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7816537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.