TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1141…55b1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155.85
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$978.57
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.85
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$519.83
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.73
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,050.76
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,085.02
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,886Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,885.63
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$932Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$932.45
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.58
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,252Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+207.6%+$12,979.91
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$336.52
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.18
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.58
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$804Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+286.7%+$2,304.52
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$673Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+193.5%+$1,302.64
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+78.3%+$443.31
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$532.75
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$145.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$520.55
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.21
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12,484Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,483.68
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Syria strikes Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$496.61
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.95
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.5
US strikes Yemen by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.76
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$181.8
Qatar strike on Israel by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.01
Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$719
Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+215.1%+$664.44
Israel strikes Iran by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,262Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,262.03
Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.49
Will Israel strike Syria by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.52
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+640.7%+$1,725.58
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,431Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+236%+$5,736.44
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.69
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$526.25
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$197.2
Syria strikes Israel by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.68
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.55
Another Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.33
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$310.93
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scott Bessent throw a punch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.56
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$281.16
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.78
Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$501.37
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,232Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,232.2
Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.97
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$782Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$782.14
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.25
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+178.5%+$785.73
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+775.3%+$2,254.58
Trump x Elon talk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$894.05
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.59
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$721Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+299.6%+$2,160.85
Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+532.6%+$439.35
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.13
Will Trump sue Powell by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$181.09
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$454.88
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.03
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$370.89
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,676.44
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+242.5%+$1,074.35
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.33
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$39.1
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$844.22
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,647.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+225.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Athletic Club vs. Girona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+225.2%+$1,130.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.