Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01fc570034a36ea43d1ce50496c04ccea75439cbb198432c3a3e41f904a97705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 11c | 2,545$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 13c | 2,539$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +137%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,973$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.73 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,419$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.62 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 583.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.09 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 80c | 451.82$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.24 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 403.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 23c | 307.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…38cdbacked Yes | 11c | 181.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 69c | 162.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 69c | 145$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 14c | 141.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +609.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 134$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 25c | 121.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 120.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 14c | 118.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 117.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 19c | 110.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 78c | 102.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 69c | 92.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…51b8backed Yes | 14c | 90.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 77c | 61.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 80c | 48.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?this page
- Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.