TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,251 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No7c3,428$240 inLost-$239.964942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes50c1,925$956 inWon+$968.7513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No59c1,594$939 inLost-$938.7312649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No4c998.91$41 inLost-$40.8669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No51c845.99$433 inLost-$432.742236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes73c809.34$591 inWon+$218.437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes18c749.56$133 inWon+$616.324427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes34c626.28$212 inWon+$414.3518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes50c573.28$285 inWon+$288.373560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes20c250$50 inWon+$199.562857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+86.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No16c195.85$31 inLost-$30.7533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf839…33c5backed No40c182.89$74 inLost-$74.04825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No50c182.89$91 inLost-$91.452433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404c…48b2backed No58c117$68 inLost-$68.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No61c97$59 inLost-$59.175335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No51c89.46$45 inLost-$45.488441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes39c87.53$34 inWon+$53.535733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c80$26 inWon+$53.681,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes66c79$52 inWon+$26.861,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe0…f9d6backed No64c61$39 inLost-$39.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No50c50$25 inLost-$256241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No44c49.69$22 inLost-$21.8625241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes48c44.61$21 inWon+$23.35955.9%33 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked No64c31.26$20 inLost-$202147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes61c18.44$11 inWon+$7.2399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.