TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,162 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68c2…1711backed Yes34c602.18$207 inLost-$206.6937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No53c599.12$318 inWon+$281.5919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes42c465.71$194 inLost-$194.0799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No77c275.85$213 inWon+$62.514843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes18c222.86$39 inLost-$39.3133627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes20c204.42$40 inLost-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe241…ba7abacked Yes15c146.29$22 inLost-$21.87966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes28c119.74$34 inLost-$33.781428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked No57c118.85$68 inWon+$51.12842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1782…0030backed Yes19c105.79$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ab…174fbacked No61c104.89$64 inWon+$40.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c103.96$27 inLost-$26.7996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No74c100$74 inWon+$261258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c96.18$13 inLost-$12.581,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes22c94$20 inLost-$20.246253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes15c88.3$13 inLost-$12.824949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes54c72.03$39 inLost-$38.6413145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb906…45e5backed No78c65.96$51 inWon+$14.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No18c65.29$12 inWon+$53.3836527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8874…0b31backed No54c56.3$30 inWon+$25.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No46c26.54$12 inWon+$14.318441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2882…9631backed Yes60c21.67$13 inLost-$13450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes60c20$12 inLost-$1225241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.