TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd839…7cc9backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c4,228$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.413989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbb…374abacked No0c4,190$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No28c3,983$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.287834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…b23ebacked No1c2,778$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No4c2,007$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.062222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No36c1,643$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.722236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356a…d352backed No4c1,234$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed No1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe19…5786backed No7c953.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc45b…3aa9backed No2c908.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c814.96$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.2769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c684.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No77c656.92$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.883129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes18c532.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c22…9b23backed Yes26c532$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+90%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No5c509$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.951931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes20c420.52$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.254957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes11c399.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.998737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c326.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes27c315.4$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.57934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2226256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…48b2backed No50c257$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes22c250$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9f…0980backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0810145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked No11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e2…54b2backed No5c241.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes26c211.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.822147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes17c195.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.996253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c191.56$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafa6…491fbacked No7c171.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No43c150.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.042433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes36c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes29c142.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes21c142.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.625335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c128$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes32c120$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.46459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes14c100.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.67397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba8…b385backed Yes20c97.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+388.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689d…f3c1backed Yes56c95.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1614…ec02backed Yes21c89.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.281040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2882…9631backed Yes29c87.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No64c72.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.44751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8f…d077backed No78c69.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-5.0wins-0.33per pick60cpaid-48%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ab…4481backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+129.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd265…34b0backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e80…658dbacked Yes25c41.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.76683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick36cpaid+121.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.414460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No75c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55955.9%33 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43435.3%12 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.