Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7de3888b6f278dc0f03aba599a4c4e801bb507606a417ad95608a7a3a65064f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd839…7cc9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 4,228$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked No | 0c | 4,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 28c | 3,983$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.28 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…b23ebacked No | 1c | 2,778$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 4c | 2,007$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 36c | 1,643$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…d352backed No | 4c | 1,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed No | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…5786backed No | 7c | 953.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45b…3aa9backed No | 2c | 908.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 814.96$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.27 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 684.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 77c | 656.92$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.88 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 532.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…9b23backed Yes | 26c | 532$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 5c | 509$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 20c | 420.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.25 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.99 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 326.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 27c | 315.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…48b2backed No | 50c | 257$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…0980backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked No | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e2…54b2backed No | 5c | 241.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 26c | 211.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 17c | 195.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 191.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…491fbacked No | 7c | 171.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 43c | 150.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes | 29c | 142.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 21c | 142.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 14c | 100.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…b385backed Yes | 20c | 97.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +388.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed Yes | 56c | 95.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Yes | 21c | 89.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 29c | 87.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 64c | 72.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 78c | 69.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…658dbacked Yes | 25c | 41.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?this page
- Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.