Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54755474fc4e9c3780cda893088495f7418a71cfd67c49aee25557b34fbeb09a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,918$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 77c | 2,502$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.83 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 18c | 1,988$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 75c | 1,175$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.32 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 32c | 775.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 503.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.6 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 65c | 400.08$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 77c | 226.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 71c | 225.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 48c | 137.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 18c | 137.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 29c | 131.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 20c | 130.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…149ebacked No | 77c | 129.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…a69abacked No | 79c | 127.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 76c | 109.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 108.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 46c | 101.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…d0e6backed No | 11c | 94.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 50c | 76.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 17c | 74.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf008…f8c9backed No | 38c | 72.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed Yes | 29c | 47.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 35.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 76c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in September?this page
- Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?No won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.