TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,285 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes36c356.82$129 inWon+$227.712157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed Yes51c337$171 inWon+$165.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed No79c309.4$244 inLost-$244.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No49c299.97$147 inLost-$146.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c200$152 inLost-$15269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No18c150$27 inLost-$27.222641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x735a…787abacked No52c133.45$69 inLost-$69.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2343…e30cbacked No8c125$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0141…1ef7backed Yes55c114.39$63 inWon+$51.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No16c106.99$17 inLost-$16.836527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c105.87$19 inLost-$19.2833627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcc…12a6backed No77c102.34$79 inLost-$78.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes23c100$23 inWon+$776256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes45c67.64$31 inWon+$36.896459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes61c58.82$36 inWon+$22.944957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3140…76d9backed No66c53.55$35 inLost-$35.12366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c52$40 inLost-$39.521,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No61c50$31 inLost-$30.53129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No35c50$17 inLost-$17.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-74.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes46c47.23$22 inWon+$25.2899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No75c30$23 inLost-$22.537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No47c27.55$13 inLost-$13.0424035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cb9…68d4backed No77c26.04$20 inLost-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.