TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,347 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4158…ce9fbacked No6c802.57$49 inLost-$49.3719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x404c…48b2backed No12c738$91 inLost-$90.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c444.96$76 inLost-$75.9399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No8c299.99$23 inLost-$22.892420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked No6c254.7$16 inLost-$16.22842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No26c223.88$59 inLost-$59.242433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed No9c222.81$20 inLost-$19.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes54c216.99$118 inWon+$98.8213145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No8c129.39$11 inLost-$10.578441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No46c70$32 inLost-$324751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes54c60$33 inWon+$27.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No22c50$11 inLost-$1125241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes80c20$16 inWon+$419348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon+$518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.