Ukraine · resolved market
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04312a6f413f595c64cb6975ac51253030da24b3670f85325638e37011bb9138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,663,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,856,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,663,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 3c | 112,511$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,862.02 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…dd17backed Yes | 0c | 67,127$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 47,820$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked Yes | 4c | 44,323$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 7c | 40,365$2,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,641.28 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc672…8f38backed Yes | 3c | 30,927$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…9f78backed Yes | 2c | 28,029$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 27,477$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.33 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…8555backed Yes | 6c | 25,000$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 4c | 22,090$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 21,342$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.34 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3c…3403backed Yes | 6c | 20,872$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…3400backed Yes | 7c | 19,922$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…80a6backed Yes | 12c | 19,626$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 17,858$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 5c | 17,536$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.69 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 6c | 16,810$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…3d74backed Yes | 3c | 16,583$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…cec7backed Yes | 3c | 13,871$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 12,896$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,385$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.78 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 4c | 10,261$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Yes | 0c | 10,239$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 2c | 9,705$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 5c | 8,869$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…4e32backed Yes | 6c | 8,532$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 3c | 7,694$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…d1ddbacked Yes | 6c | 7,286$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes | 9c | 7,210$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 7,081$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.99 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 1c | 6,446$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 6,257$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.55 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,901$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 5,752$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.51 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…cc2fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,283$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 5,195$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,186$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,116$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Yes | 4c | 5,076$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…8ca2backed Yes | 3c | 4,995$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 4,648$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 4,642$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,540$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 4,432$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,209$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,195$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…6810backed Yes | 7c | 4,076$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…6cc3backed Yes | 4c | 3,927$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 8c | 3,611$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,584$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Yes | 7c | 3,451$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…276bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,430$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 1c | 3,151$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,139$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 3,099$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 1c | 2,744$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,737$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 6c | 2,671$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…c1ecbacked Yes | 5c | 2,605$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…06a6backed Yes | 5c | 2,570$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,555$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,535$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…8915backed Yes | 7c | 2,375$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,346$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…049fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,050$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 2,001$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,746$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…9155backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed Yes | 5c | 1,665$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,618$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,613$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,457$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…e34cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,416$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…62aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…dd1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,311$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 16c | 1,247$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…8fb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,239$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 6c | 1,226$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…9ad1backed Yes | 5c | 1,207$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…35febacked Yes | 3c | 1,099$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 4c | 1,029$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 6c | 1,017$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…f516backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes | 4c | 991.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6831…c2abbacked Yes | 1c | 989.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…8890backed Yes | 4c | 932.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…8bf3backed Yes | 4c | 900.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…9425backed Yes | 4c | 859.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 6c | 775.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes | 5c | 745.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russian strike on Poland by September 30?this page
- Russian strike on Poland by December 31?No won
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.